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The economy complicates the Latino vote for Democrats in the US midterm elections.
UNITED STATES
The economy complicates the Latino vote for Democrats in the U.S. congressional elections
According to a survey conducted for EL PAÍS and George Washington University, 46% of this key community for the victory of Biden's party consider that the country is moving in the wrong direction. Still, the majority prefers Democrats to Republicans
Workers of the fast food restaurant chain Chipotle, mostly Latinos, protest this week in New York over their working conditions.
Workers of the fast food restaurant chain Chipotle, mostly Latinos, protest this week in New York over their working conditions.
RUTH HERNÁNDEZ (EFE)
Miguel Jimenez
MIGUEL JIMENEZ
Washington - 13 MAY 2022 - 23:40 EDT
4
The power of the Latino vote will once again be key in the U.S. midterm congressional elections. In 2020, their mobilization was historic, mainly to prevent Donald Trump's reelection. However, with Trump further out of the equation and with a Biden who has not been able to seduce most electoral minorities, the Latino vote will be driven primarily by the economy. That's bad news for Democrats. Most believe things are not going well.
U.S. Latinos are most concerned about the economy, the choice of 62%, according to a survey conducted for EL PAÍS and George Washington University. It worries them much more than the average population. With inflation running rampant and interest rates rising, that's bad news for Democrats. Although the labor market is close to full employment, the rising price of gasoline, food and almost every other commodity is weighing on the public's mind as it affects the population across the board.
Although Latinos still believe in the American dream, 46% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 30% who are optimistic, according to the survey, presented at a seminar at George Washington University.
The survey reflects a majority rejection of Trump and divided opinions regarding President Joe Biden among Latinos. Sixty-one percent dislike the former president, 49% consider him a racist and 31% think he is "bad for Hispanics. In the case of the current president, 30% of Hispanics surveyed consider that "he is performing poorly," 27% say that "he is trying, but the Republican Party won't let him," and 28% agree that "he is doing a good job. The Hispanics most critical of Biden are those whose dominant language is English, an indication that they are at least second- or third-generation immigrants. Among them, 38% consider his performance to be poor.
Biden and Hispanics
Although Latinos still believe that the Democratic Party cares more about them than the Republican Party, the economic factor may weigh on the vote, without the mobilizing factor that Trump entailed. "In the 2020 presidential election, Biden didn't win, Trump lost. But Biden has not been able to take advantage of how well presidents like Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, George Bush and Ronald Reagan did to win over the Latino vote. He needs to understand Latinos more, even though he has Latino positions in his administration," says César Martínez, an advertising, media and political marketing consultant with more than 25 years of experience, who has worked in the last five presidential elections.
Martinez was part of the so-called Lincoln Project in the 2020 election: "Our job was to seek out those conservative voters that we had been looking for so long for the Republican ranks and tell them to abstain this time or, with their eyes closed, vote for a Democrat," he explains.
Héctor Sánchez, executive director of Mi Familia Vota, an organization that promotes voter registration and political participation among Latinos, also admits that the 2020 campaign was special: "We ran the most aggressive campaign and had a massive mobilization. "Latinos and minorities in this country saved this democracy from extremism," he says emphatically.
Sanchez denounces the difficulties in voting in the United States that especially affect Latinos. From the fact that elections are on a weekday and often involve long lines, to the complicated registration process, especially in some states. "In general, people don't understand how difficult it is to vote. Despite that, we are seeing historic growth and that highlights even more the importance of the Latino vote in defining the future of this country," he explains.
High participation
Like him, consultant and activist Janet Hernandez believes that Latino turnout will also be high in the November 8 elections, but denounces that voter registration requirements and other restrictions "produce a voter suppression result" and that "laws are being passed that make it even more difficult to exercise that right."
Despite that, in his opinion, "the community is already mobilizing. "Latinos have been very affected by the pandemic and this is going to push people to go out and vote," he says.
Martínez, Sánchez and Hernández participated last Saturday in a round table at George Washington University in which José Antonio Ortega, head of Prisa Media in the United States, presented the results of the survey conducted by EL PAÍS. According to the survey, 75% of registered Latino voters say they will turn out to vote in the mid-term elections in November, compared to 83% who plan to vote in the 2024 presidential election. Forty-four percent say their vote is decided by the candidate and only 16% say it is decided by the party.
Hernandez notes that women are leading in voter registration and believes that the leak of the Supreme Court ruling on abortion may mobilize their turnout in favor of Democrats. A congressman who prefers not to be named believes, however, that among the predominantly Catholic Latino population, support for abortion is much lower, that Latinos are more culturally conservative, and that economics will decide the vote.
The Latino vote has traditionally been Democratic in the United States, but this has been changing over time and depends a lot on the state and the candidate in each election. While in California they have established the Democratic hegemony, in Florida it is the Republicans who have attracted the majority of their vote. Sanchez points out that in Arizona, Nevada and Colorado, the Latino vote will already be decisive in these elections and that also in Texas it will end up defining the political color of the State. Martinez stresses that even in others where the percentage of Latinos is not so high, they can be the ones who tip the balance.
In addition, he stresses that "it is important to participate in the legislatures. If not, you can't change the laws". But he sees that the Republican Party faces them with a certain advantage: "It is easier to oppose. If the Democrats lose the lower house or the Senate in the mid-term elections, maybe it will help them to think again".
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ABOUT THE FIRM
Miguel Jimenez
Miguel Jiménez
Chief correspondent of EL PAÍS in the United States. He has developed his career at EL PAÍS, where he has been editor-in-chief of Economía y Negocios, deputy editor and deputy director, and at the economic daily Cinco Días, where he was director.
